Dynamical system analysis and forecasting of deformation produced by an earthquake fault

We present a method of constructing low-dimensional nonlinear models describing the main dynamical features of a discrete 2D cellular fault zone, with many degrees of freedom, embedded in a 3D elastic solid. A given fault system is characterized by a set of parameters that describe the dynamics, rheology, property disorder, and fault geometry. Depending on the location in the system parameter space we show that the coarse dynamics of the fault can be confined to an attractor whose dimension is significantly smaller than the space in which the dynamics takes place. Our strategy of system reduction is to search for a few coherent structures that dominate the dynamics and to capture the interaction between these coherent structures. The identification of the basic interacting structures is obtained by applying the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to the surface deformations fields that accompany strike-slip faulting accumulated over equal time intervals. We use a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) architecture for the identification of the system dynamics projected onto the subspace (model space) spanned by the most energetic coherent structures. The ANN is trained using a standard back-propagation algorithm to predict (map) the values of the observed model state at a future time given the observed model state at the present time. This ANN provides an approximate, large scale, dynamical model for the fault.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figure

Factors associated with crisis pregnancies in Ireland: Findings from three nationally representative sexual health surveys

Background: Findings on the demographic and sexual health characteristics associated with the experience of a crisis pregnancy is important to inform the public health policy of a country, including Ireland. Findings from other jurisdictions have suggested that certain demographic groups are at risk for unintended pregnancies and the disparity between the groups have been growing in recent years. Ireland is a country which experienced much economic and societal change in the first decade of the 21st century, changes which are likely to have affected demographic variables pertaining to sexual health. The current study had two aims: to investigate changes in the socioeconomic characteristics associated with crisis pregnancies over a seven year period [2003 to 2010], and to investigate the recent [2010] socioeconomic risk factors associated with crisis pregnancies in Ireland. Methods: The study compared the results from 18-45 year old women using data from three broadly similar nationally representative Irish sexual health surveys carried out in 2003, 2004-2006 and 2010. Chi square analysis compared of the socioeconomic characteristics across the seven year period and found that a higher proportion of women with two or more children and women for whom religion was not important reported a crisis pregnancy in 2010 compared with earlier years. A logistic regression then investigated the sexual health history and socioeconomic factors associated with the experience of a recent crisis pregnancy using the most recent 2010 data. Results: Receipt of sex education and contraception use at first sex significantly predicted the experiencing of a recent crisis pregnancy. Younger women and those with a lower level of education were more likely to report having experienced a recent crisis pregnancy. Conclusion: Similar demographic groups are at risk for experiencing a crisis pregnancy in Ireland compared with international research, yet the disparities between demographic groups who have experienced a crisis pregnancy appear to be decreasing rather than increasing over a seven year period. Recommendations are made with regard to the provision of continued sex education throughout the lifespan, particularly for those women who are at an increased risk of experiencing a crisis pregnancy

Genetic Tests for Ecological and Allopatric Speciation in Anoles on an Island Archipelago

From Darwin's study of the Galapagos and Wallace's study of Indonesia, islands have played an important role in evolutionary investigations, and radiations within archipelagos are readily interpreted as supporting the conventional view of allopatric speciation. Even during the ongoing paradigm shift towards other modes of speciation, island radiations, such as the Lesser Antillean anoles, are thought to exemplify this process. Geological and molecular phylogenetic evidence show that, in this archipelago, Martinique anoles provide several examples of secondary contact of island species. Four precursor island species, with up to 8 mybp divergence, met when their islands coalesced to form the current island of Martinique. Moreover, adjacent anole populations also show marked adaptation to distinct habitat zonation, allowing both allopatric and ecological speciation to be tested in this system. We take advantage of this opportunity of replicated island coalescence and independent ecological adaptation to carry out an extensive population genetic study of hypervariable neutral nuclear markers to show that even after these very substantial periods of spatial isolation these putative allospecies show less reproductive isolation than conspecific populations in adjacent habitats in all three cases of subsequent island coalescence. The degree of genetic interchange shows that while there is always a significant genetic signature of past allopatry, and this may be quite strong if the selection regime allows, there is no case of complete allopatric speciation, in spite of the strong primae facie case for it. Importantly there is greater genetic isolation across the xeric/rainforest ecotone than is associated with any secondary contact. This rejects the development of reproductive isolation in allopatric divergence, but supports the potential for ecological speciation, even though full speciation has not been achieved in this case. It also explains the paucity of anole species in the Lesser Antilles compared to the Greater Antilles

(Micro)evolutionary changes and the evolutionary potential of bird migration

Seasonal migration is the yearly long-distance movement of individuals between their breeding and wintering grounds. Individuals from nearly every animal group exhibit this behavior, but probably the most iconic migration is carried out by birds, from the classic V-shape formation of geese on migration to the amazing nonstop long-distance flights undertaken by Arctic Terns Sterna paradisaea. In this chapter, we discuss how seasonal migration has shaped the field of evolution. First, this behavior is known to turn on and off quite rapidly, but controversy remains concerning where this behavior first evolved geographically and whether the ancestral state was sedentary or migratory (Fig. 7.1d, e). We review recent work using new analytical techniques to provide insight into this topic. Second, it is widely accepted that there is a large genetic basis to this trait, especially in groups like songbirds that migrate alone and at night precluding any opportunity for learning. Key hypotheses on this topic include shared genetic variation used by different populations to migrate and only few genes being involved in its control. We summarize recent work using new techniques for both phenotype and genotype characterization to evaluate and challenge these hypotheses. Finally, one topic that has received less attention is the role these differences in migratory phenotype could play in the process of speciation. Specifically, many populations breed next to one another but take drastically different routes on migration (Fig. 7.2). This difference could play an important role in reducing gene flow between populations, but our inability to track most birds on migration has so far precluded evaluations of this hypothesis. The advent of new tracking techniques means we can track many more birds with increasing accuracy on migration, and this work has provided important insight into migration's role in speciation that we will review here

Partial rupture of a locked patch of the Sumatra megathrust during the 2007 earthquake sequence

The great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 was a dramatic reminder of the importance of understanding the seismic and tsunami hazards of subduction zones [1,2,3,4]. In March 2005, the Sunda megathrust ruptured again, producing an event [5] of moment magnitude (Mw) 8.6 south of the 2004 rupture area, which was the site of a similar event in 1861 (ref. 6). Concern was then focused on the Mentawai area, where large earthquakes had occurred in 1797 (Mw = 8.8) and 1833 (Mw = 9.0) [6,7]. Two earthquakes, one of Mw = 8.4 and, twelve hours later, one of Mw = 7.9, indeed occurred there on 12 September 2007. Here we show that these earthquakes ruptured only a fraction of the area ruptured in 1833 and consist of distinct asperities within a patch of the megathrust that had remained locked in the interseismic period. This indicates that the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different patterns depending on whether asperities break as isolated seismic events or cooperate to produce a larger rupture. This variability probably arises from the influence of non-permanent barriers, zones with locally lower pre-stress due to the past earthquakes. The stress state of the portion of the Sunda megathrust that had ruptured in 1833 and 1797 was probably not adequate for the development of a single large rupture in 2007. The moment released in 2007 amounts to only a fraction both of that released in 1833 and of the deficit of moment that had accumulated as a result of interseismic strain since 1833. The potential for a large megathrust event in the Mentawai area thus remains large

Design of the PROCON trial: a prospective, randomized multi – center study comparing cervical anterior discectomy without fusion, with fusion or with arthroplasty

BACKGROUND: PROCON was designed to assess the clinical outcome, development of adjacent disc disease and costs of cervical anterior discectomy without fusion, with fusion using a stand alone cage and implantation of a Bryan's disc prosthesis. Description of rationale and design of PROCON trial and discussion of its strengths and limitations. METHODS/DESIGN: Since proof justifying the use of implants or arthroplasty after cervical anterior discectomy is lacking, PROCON was designed. PROCON is a multicenter, randomized controlled trial comparing cervical anterior discectomy without fusion, with fusion with a stand alone cage or with implantation of a disc. The study population will be enrolled from patients with a single level cervical disc disease without myelopathic signs. Each treatment arm will need 90 patients. The patients will be followed for a minimum of five years, with visits scheduled at 6 weeks, 3 months, 12 months, and then yearly. At one year postoperatively, clinical outcome and self reported outcomes will be evaluated. At five years, the development of adjacent disc disease will be investigated. DISCUSSION: The results of this study will contribute to the discussion whether additional fusion or arthroplasty is needed and cost effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN4168184

Real Time Tracking of Magmatic Intrusions by means of Ground Deformation Modeling during Volcanic Crises

Volcano observatories provide near real-time information and, ultimately, forecasts about volcano activity. For this reason, multiple physical and chemical parameters are continuously monitored. Here, we present a new method to efficiently estimate the location and evolution of magmatic sources based on a stream of real-time surface deformation data, such as High-Rate GPS, and a free-geometry magmatic source model. The tool allows tracking inflation and deflation sources in time, providing estimates of where a volcano might erupt, which is important in understanding an on-going crisis. We show a successful simulated application to the pre-eruptive period of May 2008, at Mount Etna (Italy). The proposed methodology is able to track the fast dynamics of the magma migration by inverting the real-time data within seconds. This general method is suitable for integration in any volcano observatory. The method provides first order unsupervised and realistic estimates of the locations of magmatic sources and of potential eruption sites, information that is especially important for civil protection purposes

Sex-specific local life-history adaptation in surface- and cave-dwelling Atlantic mollies (Poecilia mexicana)

Cavefishes have long been used as model organisms showcasing adaptive diversification, but does adaptation to caves also facilitate the evolution of reproductive isolation from surface ancestors? We raised offspring of wild-caught surface- and cave-dwelling ecotypes of the neotropical fish Poecilia mexicana to sexual maturity in a 12-month common garden experiment. Fish were raised under one of two food regimes (high vs. low), and this was crossed with differences in lighting conditions (permanent darkness vs. 12:12 h light:dark cycle) in a 2 × 2 factorial design, allowing us to elucidate potential patterns of local adaptation in life histories. Our results reveal a pattern of sex-specific local life-history adaptation: Surface molly females had the highest fitness in the treatment best resembling their habitat of origin (high food and a light:dark cycle), and suffered from almost complete reproductive failure in darkness, while cave molly females were not similarly affected in any treatment. Males of both ecotypes, on the other hand, showed only weak evidence for local adaptation. Nonetheless, local life-history adaptation in females likely contributes to ecological diversification in this system and other cave animals, further supporting the role of local adaptation due to strong divergent selection as a major force in ecological speciation

The Repeatability of Adaptive Radiation During Long-Term Experimental Evolution of Escherichia coli in a Multiple Nutrient Environment

Adaptive radiations occur when a species diversifies into different ecological specialists due to competition for resources and trade-offs associated with the specialization. The evolutionary outcome of an instance of adaptive radiation cannot generally be predicted because chance (stochastic events) and necessity (deterministic events) contribute to the evolution of diversity. With increasing contributions of chance, the degree of parallelism among different instances of adaptive radiations and the predictability of an outcome will decrease. To assess the relative contributions of chance and necessity during adaptive radiation, we performed a selection experiment by evolving twelve independent microcosms of Escherichia coli for 1000 generations in an environment that contained two distinct resources. Specialization to either of these resources involves strong trade-offs in the ability to use the other resource. After selection, we measured three phenotypic traits: 1) fitness, 2) mean colony size, and 3) colony size diversity. We used fitness relative to the ancestor as a measure of adaptation to the selective environment; changes in colony size as a measure of the evolution of new resource specialists because colony size has been shown to correlate with resource specialization; and colony size diversity as a measure of the evolved ecological diversity. Resource competition led to the rapid evolution of phenotypic diversity within microcosms. Measurements of fitness, colony size, and colony size diversity within and among microcosms showed that the repeatability of adaptive radiation was high, despite the evolution of genetic variation within microcosms. Consistent with the observation of parallel evolution, we show that the relative contributions of chance are far smaller and less important than effects due to adaptation for the traits investigated. The two-resource environment imposed similar selection pressures in independent populations and promoted parallel phenotypic adaptive radiations in all independently evolved microcosms

Predicting where a radiation will occur: Acoustic and molecular surveys reveal overlooked diversity in Indian Ocean Island crickets (Mogoplistinae: Ornebius)

Recent theory suggests that the geographic location of island radiations (local accumulation of species diversity due to cladogenesis) can be predicted based on island area and isolation. Crickets are a suitable group for testing these predictions, as they show both the ability to reach some of the most isolated islands in the world, and to speciate at small spatial scales. Despite substantial song variation between closely related species in many island cricket lineages worldwide, to date this characteristic has not received attention in the western Indian Ocean islands; existing species descriptions are based on morphology alone. Here we use a combination of acoustics and DNA sequencing to survey these islands for Ornebius crickets. We uncover a small but previously unknown radiation in the Mascarenes, constituting a three-fold increase in the Ornebius species diversity of this archipelago (from two to six species). A further new species is detected in the Comoros. Although double archipelago colonisation is the best explanation for species diversity in the Seychelles, in situ cladogenesis is the best explanation for the six species in the Mascarenes and two species of the Comoros. Whether the radiation of Mascarene Ornebius results from intra- or purely inter- island speciation cannot be determined on the basis of the phylogenetic data alone. However, the existence of genetic, song and ecological divergence at the intra-island scale is suggestive of an intra-island speciation scenario in which ecological and mating traits diverge hand-in-hand. Our results suggest that the geographic location of Ornebius radiations is partially but not fully explained by island area and isolation. A notable anomaly is Madagascar, where our surveys are consistent with existing accounts in finding no Ornebius species present. Possible explanations are discussed, invoking ecological differences between species and differences in environmental history between islands. (Résumé d'auteur